Saudi Arabia And Egypt — What If?

04 November 2016

By Dr. Khaled M. Batarfi

My BBC interviewer was asking: If this ''issue'' between Saudi Arabia and Egypt escalates, then what? I answered with confidence: It won't!
I told him and other TV hosts: Egypt is the Arabs' elder. It is like mother to us. In our culture, you cannot lose your family, no matter what. Yes, you could argue, disagree and/or take opposite positions in certain matters. But eventually you are committed to each other.

''Does Saudi Arabia regret investing tens of billions of dollars in a regime that is now siding with your worst enemy — Iran?,'' another question hit me.
Not at all. What Saudi Arabia does to help, it never regrets. Let's remember that we are atop the world list of donors. When it comes to our Arab and Muslim brethren we are even more committed. The Egyptian people needed us, especially after the Arab Spring brought their economy to a halt. With fewer tourists and lower exports, hard currency became harder to get.

We couldn't standby, so we joined hands with our Gulf partners and gave them all the support they needed to keep the economy humming and provide basic needs to over 90 million inhabitants. Cash, oil and food were parts of different packages, provided at different times to different governments.
Thank God, the country, its economy and security, have stabilized now. More help might be needed but mostly in the form of state and private investments and partnership, as well as open markets and friendly laws. In addition, Saudi Arabia is giving soft lawns, cheaper, on-credit oil, and hard-currency deposits in Egypt's Central Bank, like the recent 2 billion dollars.

As you see, those investments are a win-win situation. We need stronger Egypt to play its leading role in Arab affairs. We benefit from a prospering economy. And we make the best of its talents and experiences. We cannot afford to go back to the tough experience the country went through since the fall of Mubarak regime, in 2011. That was dangerous situation for the region. The Arab world cannot afford another failed state, after Libya, Iraq, Syria and Yemen. The world cannot afford a failed Egypt that could send millions of refuges to its shores, and become a huge ground for terrorism and radicalism.

Are you not afraid that Iran might replace you as Egypt main supporter? Certainly, losing the biggest Arab country to the Russo-Persian camp could be a game changer!

As I said, we cannot lose Egypt. Let's not forget it is the biggest Sunni Arab nation. Beside, Iran cannot afford to pay Egypt's debts or replace our credits, investments and support. It couldn't do that in much smaller Lebanon or Gaza.

Then why Egypt is diverging from your alliance?

Lets' not exaggerate and keep issues in perspective. The media love action and conflict. Egyptian media and elite love to pick a fight with some external foe, to distract from and blame them for depressing homemade failures. It is also great to rally the nation around the flag and leadership.
Truth is Saudi Arabia and Egypt are agreeing on almost all issues. They are members of the Arab Military Alliance and the Islamic Military Alliance Against Terrorism, coordinating their stands in the Arab League, African Union (Saudi is an observer), Organization of Islamic Cooperation, UN, UNESCO and all.

Still, we should not underestimate our differences and political perspectives on the Syrian issue. For one, Iran is the common danger we are all facing including Egypt. Their ancient maps for Greater Persia starts with the Euphrates and ends with the Nile. The project is exclusively Shiite, and has no space for the mostly Sunni Muslims Egyptians — or for their Christians and Jews.

Syrians were killed and injured by the millions, had their beautiful country destroyed, and half the population forced to seek refuge in neighboring countries and as far as Europe, Canada and Australia. They would not forget or forgive those who ignored their plight and supported their butchers.
It is one thing to fear what democracy may bring about in Syria, like the Islamists parties, including the Muslim Brotherhood, and another to join hands with the devil and destroy the whole country to prevent such outcome.

Egypt is still important and relevant. More so as we are all besieged by present, clear and imminent danger. Saudi cities, including Holy Makkah, are rained with ballistic missiles. Iraq and Syria are taken by foreign powers, and our brethren are systematically killed and driven out of their homes and farms to be replaced by Shiites coming from as far as Afghanistan and Pakistan.

We cannot afford the luxury of worrying first about futuristic calculation to possible or remote dangers. Our necks are already under the sword, and if gone, what use do we have for what might come later?

— Dr. Khaled M. Batarfi is a Saudi writer based in Jeddah. He can be reached at kbatarfi@gmail.com. Follow him at Twitter:@kbatarfi 

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