Trump as President isn't Good News for Bashar Al-Assad
03 December 2016
By Amir Taheri
When he assumes the US presidency in a few weeks' time, one of the first files
that the President-elect Donald Trump will find in his foreign policy in-tray
will be the continued tragedy in Syria. Speculation is already rife on what he
might do.
Some analysts believe that Trump, having talked about Russian leader Vladimir
Putin during the presidential campaign, might recalibrate US policy on Syria
to bring it closer to the one pursued by Moscow.
Others, however, speculate that Trump, determined to focus on domestic issues,
would whistle and walk away from the Syrian hornets' nest as fast as he can.
Still others, however, assert, maybe with a dose of wishful-thinking, that ,
having promised to ''destroy'' the so-called Islamic Caliphate in Raqqa, Trump
would be obliged to replace President Barak Obama's ''make-believe'' policy
with a serious approach to what should be regarded as the hottest
international crisis at the moment.
Speculation about what Trump might do is made possible because the
president-elect has not made any substantial statements on Syria or any other
foreign policy topic for that matter. So the best one can do is to interpret
his scant utterances and to create context by looking at the people he has so
far chosen for his national security team.
The theory according to which Trump would axe his Syrian policy on that of
Putin is based on the over-interpretation of the president-elect's almost
casual remark that he will ''get along fine with Vladimir Putin.'' ''Getting
along fine'' however, doesn't mean sub-contracting US policy on a sensitive
issue to the Russian leader.
More importantly, perhaps, a strong case could be made about the assertion
that Russia itself doesn't have a clear strategy on Syria. Moreover, while
Putin has spoken warmly about Trump's victory, the Russian Foreign Minister
Sergei Lavrov has been more cautious. It is quite possible that, in time,
Trump would find out that Moscow is as clueless about what to do in Syria,
that is to say apart from killing people with indiscriminate air attacks, as
the Obama administration has been for almost five years.
Lavrov's bitter attack on Saturday on Obama for having advised Trump to be
cautious about rapprochement with Russia indicates Moscow's concern that the
new US administration may not be a mere pushover as some analysts believe. It
is not prudent to see Trump's casual nictitate as a sign that he will be
little lamb to Putin's Mary.
Uncertainty regarding Trump's possible stance on Syria is even greater when it
comes to the fate of Syria's beleaguered President Bashar Al-Assad. This was
amply reflected in an interview with Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Al-Muallim
published by the Iranian official news agency IRNA on Sunday. ''It is too
early to say what the new US administration will do,'' the Syrian says. ''We
are in daily contact with Russia on the subject as on other issues.''
Tehran also seems concerned, not to say worried, about what line Trump might
take on Syria especially if the Syrian issue is raised in the context of a
broader understanding between Moscow and Washington.
In an editorial last week, the daily Kayhan, reputed to reflect the views of
the ''Supreme Guide'' Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned against a possible deal
between Russia and the United States that might undermine ''the vital
interests of the Resistance''. ''Resistance'' is the label Tehran uses for
itself and its allies including Assad, the various branches of Hezbollah and
several armed groups in Iraq and Yemen.
Khamenei has made the fate of Assad a litmus test for his own claim to the
leadership of the Islamic ''ummah''. ''The Supreme Guide will not allow
President Assad to fall,'' says Ali-Akbar Velayati, Khamenei's key adviser on
foreign policy.
However, Assad's hand over of power to a transition authority that reflects
Syria's myriad factions is the starting point of almost all schemes for ending
the tragic conflict.
''Europe cannot accept any solution that would leave Assad in power,'' French
Cabinet Minister Jean-Marie le Guen, said in a radio interview yesterday. The
assertion echoes similar statements by British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson
and the European Union foreign policy spokeswoman Federica Mogherini.
Putin, of course, may hope that he could finish off the anti-Assad opposition
before Trump is sworn in as president. But, even if that happens, it would not
be up to Moscow to decide who governs in Damascus. To regain the semblance of
a normal country, a broken Syria would require resources that Russia, or any
other power, alone could not provide.
Only a coalition of the United States, Europe and Russia would be able to
prevent Syria from becoming a cesspool in which mosquitos of terrorism breed,
threatening the whole world. Judging by the people he has so far named to his
national security team, Trump is likely to adopt a more robust policy on
fighting terrorism. His National security Adviser Lt. General Michael Flynn
quit his position as head of the defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) in 2014
precisely because he believes Obama was not serious about combating terrorism,
especially in Syria.
A sign that Flynn will be one of Trump's closest aides on all aspects of
foreign policy came when the general was invited to attend the
president-elect's meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abbe in New York
last week. The man that Trump has named as the new head of the CIA, Mike
Pompeo, is also bad news for Bashar Al-Assad, having often argued that
defeating ISIS requires the turning of the page in Syria. Assad's heavy
reliance on Iranian support also diminishes his chances of switching to the
American side in the hope of prolonging his tenure.
Senator Jeff Sessions, the man named by Trump as his new Attorney General, has
always adopted a hardline stance on the Iranian mullahs and ''the destructive
role'' he claims they play in the Middle East. Mike Pence, who is to be
Trump's Vice-President is also on record condemning Assad's ''criminal
repression of the Syrian people.'' As Congressman, Pence sponsored a
resolution demanding support for the Iranian uprising against the regime in
2009. Assad's dependence on Tehran means that Pence and others who regard the
Islamic Republic as an enemy also reject the acceptance of the current regime
in Damascus.
A survey of all the names mentioned as Trump's nominee for Secretary of State
would also result in the rejection of Assad's hope of being allowed to remain
in post as a result of a Trump-Putin deal. Mitt Romney, Rudi Giuliani and John
Bolton may soften their tough stance on Russia in a give-and-take deal with
Putin. But they are unlikely to become part-heir to the burden that the Assad
regime has become for everyone, including its sponsors in Tehran and Moscow.
In any configuration, Trump as president isn't good news for Assad and his
backers in Tehran. This is because Assad is bad news for Syria, to start with.
Amir Taheri was born in Ahvaz, southwest Iran, and educated in Tehran,
London and Paris. He was Executive Editor-in-Chief of the daily Kayhan in Iran
(1972-79). In 1980-84, he was Middle East Editor for the Sunday Times. In
1984-92, he served as member of the Executive Board of the International Press
Institute (IPI). Between 1980 and 2004, he was a contributor to the
International Herald Tribune. He has written for the Wall Street Journal, the
New York Post, the New York Times, the London Times, the French magazine
Politique Internationale, and the German weekly Focus. Between 1989 and 2005,
he was editorial writer for the German daily Die Welt. Taheri has published 11
books, some of which have been translated into 20 languages. He has been a
columnist for Asharq Alawsat since 1987. Taheri's latest book "The Persian
Night" is published by Encounter Books in London and New York.
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