08 December 2016
By Eyad Abu Shakra
The Lebanese Parliament has elected Michel Aoun, MP, as Lebanon's new
president and has thus ended the 'Presidential Vacuum' brought about, since
May 25th 2014, by the boycott carried out by Hezbollah and its subservient
parliamentary blocs which would accept no candidate for the post other than
their man
Aoun. On another front, in north western Iraq and northern Syria
new maps of influences are being drawn by Iran's expansionism, the Kurds'
ambitions, and Turkey's calculations.
Aoun's securing the Lebanese presidency, whatever excuses are given to justify
it, is yet another victory to Iran's grand plan in the Arab 'Mashreq' whose
fulfilment began with another Republican US administration, and solidified,
sponsored and nurtured by another US administration, but Democrat this time
around.
However, Iran's new victory in Lebanon with due respect to both the
country's absent sovereignty and the post of president is but a small drop
in the sea of Tehran-led Arab-named militias inside Iraq and Syria.
Lebanon, its presidency, parliament, and government are insignificant details
that mean nothing in the 'big regional picture' that includes religious and
sectarian uprooting and displacement here, and ethnic cleansing there. Only
some Maronite Christians still take the Lebanese presidency with undeserved
seriousness refusing to accept why Iran through its arm Hezbollah
nominated Aoun in the first place; with Washington's indirect blessings.
Frankly, Lebanon's president is not going to a real 'president' simply because
Lebanon has ceased to be a real 'country'. At present it is nothing more than
a coastal part of Iran on the east coast of the Mediterranean, and a large
training camp run by a religious militia accorded regional duties which have
brought down the political borders internationally drawn & recognized in 1920.
Those who do not want to see the facts on the ground, must look no further
than the duties that Hezbollah is ordered to execute in Syria, Yemen, Iraq,
the GCC countries, and even Egypt's Sinai Peninsula. Then, follow the
development of Iraq's Shi'ite militia starting with small groupings such as 'Assa'eb
Ahl al-Haqq', 'Badr Brigade' (later Badr Organization), 'Abu'l Fadhl Al-Abbass
Brigade', 'Al-Nujabaa'' etc.. and reaching the 'umbrella' organization 'The
Popular Mobilization Forces' (PMF) that was legalized and legitimized by
Haidar Al-Abadi's government. Incidentally, that is the same Al-Abadi who
defended the appearance of General Qassem Suleimani, the commander of Iran's
IRGC's 'Al-Quds Brigade' on Iraqi battlefields by declaring that he was acting
as an advisor of his US-backed government!
Evidently, in the meantime the 'tri-partite' liaison between the rump of
Bashar Al-Assad's regime in Syria, Iran and Russia gathers pace. The Moscow
meeting that took place last week was yet another landmark on the road to
confirm the Russo-Iranian 'Dual Trusteeship' in the 'Useful Syria'. The
Russians and Iranians are now actively helping the Al-Assad regime in its
campaign of religious uprooting and displacement throughout 'Useful Syria' in
the western part of the country, including the northern provinces of Aleppo
and Idlib. Elsewhere, while the regime's army and Iran's Shi'ite militias
bolster the defences of the capital Damascus through displacing the Ghouta
towns and suburbs surrounding it, Al-Assad and Tehran strive to keep the
southern 'front' in the Golan calm in order to assure Israel of the 'positive
rewards' of it accepting its share of Iran's grand plan in both Syria and
Lebanon.
Details are different in eastern and north eastern Syria where the Kurds and
Turks are playing a pivotal role that reverberates inside Iraq. The other day,
in an extremely poignant development 'The Popular Mobilization Forces' (PMF)
sponsored and backed by the Iraqi government announced that after achieving
the ''liberation'' of the city of Mosul, they will move into Syria to support
the Assad regime!
The PMF's notorious record in acts of vengeful sectarian violence is well
known and documented everywhere it has operated, from Al-Fallujah and Al-Ramadi
to Al-Muqdadyyiah and Saleheddin Province. Furthermore, in addition to this
militia's sectarian crimes under the command of General Suleimani, the ''Iraqi
Government advisor'', several aggressive and abominable pronouncements were
made by the leading figures of the PMF such as Qais Al-Khaz'ali, Hadi Al-Ameri
et al, which uncover deeply held sectarian hatred that is surely destructive
to Iraq's national unity and any chance of coexistence between its major
communities.
Consequently, the PMF's crimes and its leaders' rhetoric and threats have
pushed even Washington to ''advise'' the Baghdad government not to allow this
hateful militia to take part in the attack planned against the largest Sunni
Arab Iraqi city, i.e. Mosul.
American endeavours, however, seem to have failed with a government that is
nothing but a faηade of the hegemony of Iran Washington's new Middle East
ally over Iraq. Indeed, the PMF went further by insisting on attacking
Nineveh Plain then the predominantly Sunni Turkmen town of Tal Afar.
In both northern Iraq and northern and north eastern Syria, Turkey feels
concerned and has vital interests in two areas:
1- Protection of the Turkmen minorities.
2- Prevention of the creation of
'Greater Kurdistan'.
Given the above, Turkey has launched the 'Euphrates Shield' between the city
of Aleppo and the Turkey Syria border west of the Euphrates River in order
to protect the Turkmen and prevent the linking of the Kurdish Afrin in the
north west corner of Syria enclave with the bulk of the Kurdish-majority
territories in the north and northeast; and is now deeply concerned about the
fate of the Turkmen of northern Iraq, as well as secessionist Kurds'
aspirations for independence.
In fact, Turkey is absolutely right to be concerned about the situation in
both its southern neighbours. The Iraqi oil city of Kirkuk inhabited by
Turkmen, Kurds and Arabs has long been a tinderbox of friction and
antagonism, and the candidly expressed desire of Iraqi Kurds for full
independence may have grave repercussions in the Kurdish regions of eastern
Turkey; noting that Iran has already made inroads within 'Iraqi Kurdistan'
through the Jalal Talebani wing in the Sulaymaniyah District of the so-far
'autonomous region'. Hence, the last thing that the Turks want along their
borders is a Shi'i Arab Kurdish alliance under Iran's influence against Arab
Sunnis and Turkmen left to face an unknown future in the aftermath of the
broad understanding and cooperation between Washington and Tehran.
In such a situation, the Christian presence in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon is
dwindling as a result of unwise strategies adopted by several Christian
leaders in their respective fragile and fractious countries; either by
aligning themselves with illegitimate ruling elites, or relying too much on
Western protection without realizing that interests and not moral commitments
drive Western policies.
Eyad Abu Shakra is the managing editor of Asharq Al-Awsat. He has been with
the newspaper since 1978.
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