It has been twelve weeks since the Mosul offensive to drive ISIS hardliners
out of their Iraq stronghold launched– the whole world awaits good news on the
decisive battle. Iraqi forces, backed by an international coalition, currently
are the chief the power combating ISIS in the northern Iraqi city, Mosul.
The capacities of Iraqi forces to retake the city and defeat the extremist
group ISIS are undoubted. It is only a matter of time. However, what remains a
considerable distress is that Iran would turn out to be the greatest
beneficiary of the Mosul operation. The United States' President-elect Donald
Trump, when asked about the ongoing U.S.-backed offensive to retake the Iraqi
city of Mosul from ISIS during the final presidential debate, said
terror-sponsor of terrorism Iran will ultimately ''benefit'' from the
operation.
To him the greatest fear is that Iran will be at a winner position, and the
U.S. will be cut out. ''Iran is taking over Iraq,'' Trump said. What is more
is that it remains a possible scenario, so long that the U.S.-led
international coalition has not yet engineered a conclusive clear-cut plan for
countering terrorism.
In 2001, when U.S. forces ended the Taliban's reign over Afghanistan, and then
carried on with taking down the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq, it was
oblivious to the disruption caused to regional balance, which Iran found in
its favor.
Iran had profited from the eradication of its chief two regional enemies, so
will be the case if ISIS is expelled from Mosul. It will exploit vacancy,
caused by Washington's repeated mistake, to its own gains. The more Washington
rolls back on its ties with Baghdad, the stronger the Iran-Iraq relations
would be, moving Iran a step closer to its expansionist ambitions.
Iran-aligned militias, currently a factor in the Mosul operation, would later
overrun and strive in liberated areas, should international forces stick to a
mere militarized contribution. Especially that an Iran influential dominance
still strains the Iraq government.
All international efforts on eliminating terror group ISIS will then become
counter effective on terms of restoring overall balance, enhancing Iran's
position as a regional power, and its presence in both Iraq and Syria.
There is an outspoken global concession on the importance of freeing Iraq's
third largest city from ISIS-hold, but obscurity covers the post-battle phase.
If Iran's presence in Mosul, for the sake of argument, was a mere advisory one
according to its claims, it does not make up for the fact that its proxy Iraqi
militia the Popular Mobilization Forces, whose sworn allegiance is given to
Tehran, is openly partaking in the offensive secured in the knowledge that who
fights in Mosul today gets to be a part of its political future tomorrow.
Iraq faces a grave demographic threat if U.S. interests, Iraqi government
aims, and Iran's end game all translate into keeping Iraq's Sunni community at
bay, and a political minority that rests on the sidelines of Iraqi life. The
aftermath of such a situation will extend its harm beyond Iran in a chain
effect across the region.
Iran seeks a Mosul victory which can add to the sectarian schism of the Muslim
world, pitting Shi'ites against Sunnis, bringing about a political process in
which Shi'ites exclude their Sunni counterparts. The same approach will give
Iran a greater strategic influence over the region.
Mosul's offensive is key not only because it fights off terrorist group ISIS,
which has managed to occupy entire Iraqi cities, but also because it would
outline Iraq's political makeup and the chances of coexistence among its
diverse communities.
It is alarming that the Mosul offensive, despite ridding the world from ISIS,
would leave behind the makings of future extremist groups just as dangerous
and disturbing as the one we face today.
Salman Aldosary is the editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper.
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