What will Happen if Russia Left Syria?
20 December 2017By Abdulrahman Al-Rashed
Assuming that Russia's statement about its intention to withdraw most of its
troops from Syria is true, such a decision will most likely mix the deck all
over again for this country, which appears to be on its way out of the war.
Ironically, Russia played a negative role that enabled both the Assad regime
and Iran to take control, having previously failed to defeat the revolutionary
forces and terrorist groups.
Now, Moscow has a "positive" role in balancing the forces, precisely in
limiting Iran's activity and its militias on the ground.
According to the Russian news agency, President Vladimir Putin was clear when
he said: "I have taken a decision: a significant part of the Russian troop
contingent located in Syria is returning home to Russia."
Whether Russia gets out of Syria or reduces the number of its troops, its
influence will diminish. Here, the more likely possibility is that Russia's
decision will be in Iran's favor.
Al-Khamenei regime seeks near-total control of Syria, with the exception of
Kurdish or neighboring Turkey areas.
Its influence can be noticed through its militia centers across the Syrian
borders with Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, and of course in Damascus.
It is not clear what Russia's motives are for announcing this partial
withdrawal. Is it the result of disagreements with Iran over control and
management of the situation on the ground, or is it part of the truce brokered
with the United States, which also has a limited presence in Syria?
It is normal for Assad's allies to disagree on the post-war era. Iran wants to
dominate the area in order to to pressure and defy the US.
Russia, however, wants to establish a balanced situation with the United
States in a number of areas of conflict around the world.
Both motives may coincide but can only be temporarily achieved, as was the
case during the war.
Both countries entered Syria under the pretenses of fighting terrorism, but
the battles which their forces fought were directed at the Syrian armed
opposition. Only US-led coalition focused on fighting ISIS.
Moscow has no interest in protecting and supporting Iranian forces, which are
made up of tens of thousands of multi-national militants recruited by Tehran
from different countries.
How will Iran return Russia's military favor? Technically, it is offering
nothing.
Reduction of Moscow's military presence will weaken the Syrian regime and
Iranian militias. Is the Kremlin willing to abandon its Syrian ally and
sacrifice everything it did?
All of this will depend on a regional and US plan, if any, against Iran's
influence in Syria itself.
If there is any sense of danger from Iran's expansion and a desire to confront
it, Syria is the perfect trap for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Iran's militias will not be able to settle in a hostile environment,
especially if peace negotiations fail. As long as Assad, and Iran, are
hampering any solution that brings the regime together with the opposition,
negotiations will not succeed.
The partial withdrawal of Russian troops and failure of the recent
negotiations in Geneva, could be developed into two major elements that can
pressure Assad regime and Iran to reconsider and make realistic concessions.
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed is the former general manager of Al-Arabiya
television. He is also the former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat, and the
leading Arabic weekly magazine Al-Majalla. He is also a senior columnist in
the daily newspapers Al-Madina and Al-Bilad.
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EsinIslam.Com
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