Tehran's Adversities: The Regime Suffering From Internal Conflicts, Including Rifts Between Clerics
15 January 2018By Abdulrahman Al-Rashed
'Misfortunes never come singly. '
This simple saying sums up the current situation of the Iranian regime. The
country was struck by earthquakes and was shaken by nationwide riots; one of
its biggest oil tankers close to China's coast caught fire after a collision;
the exchange rate of the riyal deteriorated, and the majority of the US
Congress voted on a new law to punish Iran.
Even if the protests subsided, they are increasing through other means.
Protests alone are not enough to overthrow a regime based on diabolical
foundations of religious forces, Basij security forces, Revolutionary Guard
Corps and intelligence services. Most internet services were blocked, social
media was banned and 5,000 prisoners were sentenced to death without any
regard to international public opinion.
However, when adversities hit the regime, it will be burdened by popular,
international and economic pressures, and will eventually stagger.
The regime then has few options. It will either change: partially like the
case of China, or dramatically like in Russia, or gradually as in Egypt, or
completely as had happened with the Libyan regime. There are also examples of
peaceful collapse of governments as seen in eastern Europe.
It is not difficult for the regime to suppress the uprisings and face the
demonstrations as it did this time and eight years ago. Yet, the regime of the
Guardianship of Islamic Jurist (Wilayat al-Faqih), suffers from a number of
serious illnesses. First, for 40 years the regime has been in absolute power
without developing itself or answering to the new generation's needs.
The regime also suffers from internal conflicts, including rifts between
clerics that have surfaced and threatened its unity.
It is now paying for its religious and military leaders' ambitions, who got
the country involved in dangerous costly regional wars.
It is impossible for Iran to achieve permanent control because of the regional
rejection of its expansion.
Finally, Iran's enmity with great powers, precisely the Unite States under the
leadership of President Donald Trump. Washington decided to monitor Tehran's
institutions with the intention of targeting them. It has started to pressure
the Iranian regime technologically, commercially and politically.
Combined, all these factors are capable of destroying this extremist
theological state, which rejects development, change and coexistence, and
insists on waging wars and spreading terrorism.
Recent demonstrations in Iran are a very important indicator that the regime
has lost what is left of its popularity even in rural areas and other areas
that once supported it.
Earlier, it was said that the people of Tehran and the middle class who
revolted in 2009 do not decide the fate of Iran, but the regime's support base
is in the areas outside the capital.
This regime, founded by Khomeini, is deteriorating and will collapse either
gradually or rapidly in a time not too far not only because regional and
international powers are seeking that, but because most of the internal powers
are now opposing and uniting against the regime.
Since the state of Wilayat al-Faqih is concerned with its image internally and
externally, we must not be surprised if we saw it over-expanding its military
operations, seeking victories abroad to mend its internal wounds.
Iranian Republic does not have enough financial resources to fix its current
economy, which deteriorated with the widespread protests, and if it goes too
far with its military activities abroad, the situation will worsen.
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed is the former general manager of Al-Arabiya
television. He is also the former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat, and the
leading Arabic weekly magazine Al-Majalla. He is also a senior columnist in
the daily newspapers Al-Madina and Al-Bilad.
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EsinIslam.Com
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