The Iranian Revolution IRGC's Generals and the New Generals
10 February 2018By Ghassan Charbel
On the 11th of February, the Iranian Revolution will celebrate the 39th
anniversary of its victory and commence its 40th year. We can imagine the map
of the region wide open on the table of current and former Revolutionary Guard
generals; General Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Quds Force, Maj. Gen.
Mohammad Ali Jaafari, commander of the Guards, General Rahim Safavi, military
adviser to the spiritual leader and former IRGC chief, General Mohsen Rezaee,
secretary general of the Expediency Discernment Council and former commander
of the Guards.
If it is possible to avoid describing the Guards as the "ruling party", one
cannot ignore the overwhelming presence of the "IRGC State" at the core of the
Iranian regime and its decision-making process.
The four generals are likely to be relieved if they look at the map. Iran has
the leading role in Iraq. Through its militias and in partnership with Russia,
it has prevented the collapse of the Syrian regime. In Lebanon, there are
those who believe that the parliamentary elections scheduled for May would
consolidate, through legitimate means, the country's presence within the
Iranian Crescent. As for Yemen, the Houthis continue to assume their role in
the Iranian program, undaunted by the terrible adventure into which they have
driven the country.
The Guards Generals' boasting of the Iranian influence in the four Arab
capitals does not eliminate the bad conditions witnessed in the respective
countries. Iraq, where Iran is strongly present in the decision-making
process, is unfortunately a broken country confused between Sunnis and Kurds,
despite its significant victory over "ISIS", with the support of the
"International Alliance".
Syria, where Moscow and Tehran have managed to salvage the regime, has turned
into a jungle of flags of states and militias in a rare and unprecedented
abuse of a fractured country. It is certain that any viable political solution
in Syria will lead to a decline in the role of Iran, which was completely
dominant before the outbreak of confrontations in this country. It is hard to
believe that Lebanon is at its best. As for Yemen, nothing suggests that this
challenging country will be an easy celebration for the Houthi adventure.
In contrast to breakthroughs and achievements, it is difficult for the four
generals to ignore the fact that recent days have revealed that the Iranian
Revolution is beginning to suffer from the symptoms of turning forty. The open
letter addressed by prominent opposition figure Mehdi Karroubi to the
spiritual leader is very significant. He said: "I urge you, before it is too
late, to make room for structural reforms of the regime with accurate
diagnosis of the country's political, economic and foreign situation, and
through the evaluation of policies adopted in recent years."
One day later, the regime received a new warning; this time from President
Hassan Rouhani. "All the leaders of the country must listen to the demands and
wishes of the people. The former regime lost everything, because it did not
hear the voice and criticism of the citizens," he stated.
It is clear that Rouhani and Karroubi are aware of the growing resentment in
the Iranian street and the disappointment of new generations with domestic
policies and regional adventures that drain the energies of the country and
put them in constant conflict with the people of the region and most of the
world.
The two men realize that the nuclear deal was not a final salvation for the
regime; and that the US administration is preparing to impose a painful
package of sanctions that will deprive Tehran of reaping the fruits of the
Obama agreement, because it will convince investors that the time to return to
Iran has not come yet.
The sanctions are aimed at making Iran pay the price of violating countries,
disrupting stability, supporting terrorism, manufacturing ballistic missiles
and threatening the security of waterways.
Time is the fiercest enemy of revolutions. It caresses them and later
entangles them. It sympathizes with them and then attacks them. It tests them
and destroys their auras. Time is ruthless. It separates fantasies from dreams
and drags them into the Court of Numbers. The peculiarity of a revolution is
not enough to immunize it against fixed rules. Change is the only salvation.
Refusing to reconcile with time is the shortest way to collapse, no matter how
late it is.
There are no ideas that fit all times and places. The ideas are the fruit of
their time and carry with them the features of the place as well. Time, like a
river, carries with it new and different ideas, and question marks. The "KGB"
Empire was unable to protect Lenin's revolution from committing suicide. The
massive Communist Party of China (CPC) was unable to protect Mao Zedong's
revolution from the needs and winds of the times. Nothing suggests that Iran's
Revolutionary Guards will succeed where others have failed.
In this month, 40 years ago, the Iranian Revolution achieved victory,
reverberating across the region and the world; a revolution that was born from
outside the ideology of these two camps. Back then, Lenin's party resembled
Lenin himself, and Mao's party reflected Mao's beliefs. But time has changed,
and here is Khomeini's revolution facing the troubles of turning forty, in a
world very different from the one in which it was born.
The IRGC generals must know that there are new generals, who represent more
threat to the Iranian regime than US generals. Generals, who came from
scientific, technological and digital revolutions… Generals, who cannot be
intercepted at the border, nor can they be faced by rockets and the
mobilization of militias. The Iranian youth is more likely to be turning
towards these generals they see in their smartphones. They want to be neutral
citizens in a normal country busy with investment and stability. Here I mean
Google Gen. Larry Page, Microsoft General Satya Nadella and his predecessor
Bill Gates, Amazon General Jeff Bezos, Facebook General Mark Zuckerberg, Apple
General Tim Cook and Telegraph General Pavel Durov.
If the Iranian revolution fails to capture the deep meaning of the pains of
turning 40 in a world of change, Khamenei must truly reflect on what time has
done with the revolutions of Lenin and Mao.
Ghassan Charbel is the editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper
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