A New Cold War Between Russia And UK

27 March 2018

By Dr. Ali Al-Ghamdi

WHERE will the case of the alleged use of poison gas against former Russian double agent Sergei Skripal take the relations between Britain and Russia? As Britain sought the support of all the Western countries on the issue, it is not certain whether the issue would further exacerbate or not. These countries were quick in coming out in support of their ally, even though it was in varying degrees. Despite giving full support to its ally, France and Germany are not in favor of allowing the case reaching such a stage of escalation by giving hints that they are awaiting the outcome of the investigation.

As for the United States, it has been quick to respond with imposing sanctions on Russia. The US attributed its swift action to Russia's intervention in the US presidential elections that brought President Donald Trump to the White House. On its part, Russia described the British actions as provocative and vowed to respond appropriately.

There would be logic in asking who will be the beneficiary when such a crime was committed, especially in the case of the Russian double agent Skripal, who was spying for the erstwhile Soviet Union in the past and was later hired by Britain to work for it. When it was discovered, he was imprisoned in Russia.

He was freed from captivity as a result of a deal clinched between Britain and Russia, and consequently he moved to Britain to live in a small British city of Salisbury along with his daughter Yulia. They are critically ill after having been poisoned with a military-grade nerve agent known as novichok, developed by Soviet Union. The bitter row that broke out between Russia and Britain following this incident brought back the memories of the Cold War.

Russian President Vladimir Putin had been busy with his electioneering, and he was not keen to be drawn in this controversy before the completion of the election process in which he could score a big victory. The Russian government denied its involvement in the incident and in the beginning, Kremlin expressed its willingness to take part in the investigation and asked to send a sample of gas used to poison the double agent. But the British Prime Minister Theresa May reacted to it with a warning that Moscow should explain how a Russian government-manufactured nerve agent came to be used in an attack against Skripal and his daughter, and she gave only a few hours to meet her demand.

When the deadline was over, she announced at the House of Commons that the Kremlin was culpable for the nerve agent attack and that the government was expelling 23 Russian diplomats. She told the parliament that the Russian diplomats had been identified as "undeclared intelligence officers" and must leave the UK within a week.

May also revoked an invitation to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to visit the UK and suspended high-level contacts between the two countries, including a boycott of the World Cup in Russia this summer by ministers and members of the royal family. "Britain will freeze Russian state assets wherever we have the evidence that they may be used to threaten the life or property of UK nationals or residents," she said.

Britain also took the issue to the Security Council where the British envoy said that Russia was "in serious breach of the Chemical Weapons Convention through its failure to declare the novichok program." In a tit-for-tat move, Russia also announced expulsion of similar number of British diplomats. The Russian authorities also ordered the closure of the UK's consulate in St. Petersburg and the British Council in Moscow.

For its part, the United States representative Nikki Haley said that her government believes that the Russian government is responsible for the poisoning of the double agent and announced solidarity with Britain, saying: "This is a defining moment. Time and time again, member states say they oppose the use of chemical weapons under any circumstance." "Now, one member stands accused of using chemical weapons on the sovereign soil of another member. The credibility of this council will not survive if we fail to hold Russia accountable."

The French ambassador at the UN made a similar declaration backing the UK position, offering "the full support and complete solidarity of France for the UK". "We have reached a new stage: the use of a substance never declared to the OPCW used in a public area in the territory of a European country," he said.

This was followed by a joint statement of the leaders of UK allies, affirming that there was no plausible alternative explanation for the poisoning of Skripal and his daughter Yulia. The leaders said they "abhorred" the Salisbury incident, and the involvement of the Russian-made novichok "constitutes the first offensive use of a nerve agent in Europe since the second world war. It is an assault on UK sovereignty and any such use by a state party is a clear violation of the chemical weapons convention and a breach of international law," their statement said.

All this showed how successful British PM May in convincing the people in Britain and its Western allies about the involvement of Russia in the poisoning incident. They also linked the Skripal issue to what is happening in Syria, considering Russia and President Putin protecting the Syrian regime accused of using chemical weapons in the Eastern Ghouta.

There could be another beneficiary for the row between Russia and Britain and that is Georgia. The relations between Russia and Georgia worsened after Russia's annexation of Crimea under the pretext that Communist leader Nikita Khrushchev had illegally granted it to Ukraine. During the Russian sponsored referendum held two years ago, the majority of people in the Crimean peninsula decided in favor of joining back Russia and this infuriated Ukraine and the Western countries.

Since the nerve agent used to poison Skripal and his daughter was developed in the erstwhile Soviet Union, why could it have not been used by one of the agents of Ukraine to create a problem between Britain and Russia, thus settling scores with Russia on the Crimean issue at a time when Moscow considered this issue as a resolved one.

— — Dr. Ali Al-Ghamdi is a former Saudi diplomat who specializes in Southeast Asian affairs. He can be reached at algham@hotmail.com 

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