Syria: The Putin-Erdogan Summit Was a Missed Opportunity
29 April 2018
By Amir Taheri
Earlier this week Russian President Vladimir Putin, still beaming from his
re-election victory, tried to heighten his global profile with a
much-advertised "summit" with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
(A brief tripartite sitting with Iran's President Hassan Rouhani was later
added as a footnote to "exchange views" on Syria.)
At tactical level Putin and Erdogan need each other.
Erdogan gives Putin, who is asserting himself as the arbiter of Syria's
future, as an "Islamic" cover to counter claims that Russia, having bombed
large parts of Syria into rubble and killing tens of thousands of civilians,
is now at war with Islam. It is no accident that Kremlin's recent "advice" to
Muslim preachers in mosques across the Russian federation includes the claims
that Putin's moves in Syria are backed by Erdogan.
For his part Erdogan, too, needs Putin a tactical level. It was Putin who told
his protégé Bashar al-Assad not to press acclaim for control of Syrian Kurdish
areas annexed by Turkey in recent operations. Russian forces in Syria looked
the other way as Turkish forces carved out the Syrian cordon sanitaire that
Erdogan wanted.
It was also thanks to a nod and a wink from Putin that the mullahs of Tehran
suddenly ceased their initially violent denunciation of Turkey for annexing
chunks of Syrian territory. Furthermore, Erdogan, as any middleweight player
in a power game knows, needed a big power protector against another big power,
in this case the United States.
More importantly, perhaps, both Putin and Erdogan needed each other complete
Iran's exclusion from the top table on Syria, a process that started in 2015
when Putin rode in to claim the title of protector for what is left of Assad's
ramshackle regime. A group of Iranian parliamentarians who visited Damascus
recently were surprised to find posters celebrating the "victory" of Putin and
Assad with no mention of Iran's "Supreme Guide" Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, let
alone Gen. Assam Soleimani the self-promoting the poster-boy of "Imamist
Jihad".
Another poster distributed in Deir az-Zour puts giant images of Putin and
Assad in the front section with small images of Khamenei and the Lebanese
"Hezbollah" chief Hasan Nasrallah in the background.
To hammer in the point that we are witnessing a two-man show, Putin and
Erdogan did all they could to be seen together, announced grandiose plans for
a nuclear industry in Turkey, re-hashed old projects for oil and gas pipelines
and even evoked the sale of Russian military hardware to Turkey.
The Putin- Erdogan tandem's aim is to marginalize Iran's role in Syria, to
encourage US President Donald Trump's penchant for withdrawal from the Syrian
quagmire and to allow no space for any Arab initiative on Syria. With the
remnants of the Assad regime reduced to irrelevance, Putin and Erdogan hope to
seize sole control of Syria's destiny.
But how realistic is such an ambition? The short answer is: not very!
There is no doubt that Iran's role in Syria has been dramatically reduced
while Putin has denied Iran its own share of Syrian territory in which to set
up a permanent base through which to maintain control over Lebanon. Iran's
fundamental weakness in Syria is that it has no indigenous constituency. Tukey
can count on the sympathy of the Muslim Arab majority in Syria while Russia is
cast as protector of the Alawite and Christian minorities there.
Iran, however, cannot count on any such popular support base. But Iran remains
the biggest paymaster for the Assad regime. In fact, before travelling to
Turkey for a mini-meeting with Putin and Erdogan, Rouhani had hinted that he
would demand that Russia and Turkey make a serious contribution to the cost of
keeping Syria "safe from terrorists". Iran's other asset in Syria is the
estimated 40,000 mercenaries he has recruited from Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria,
Afghanistan and Pakistan.
That makes ran the second largest military force on the ground after the
remnants of Assad's army and ancillaries'.
Putin and Erdogan would be mistaken if they think they could easily exclude
Iran from the Syrian scene.
Putin and Erdogan would be equally wrong if they take a Trumpian tweet as a US
decision to withdraw from Syria. It may be hard to guess Trump's next move on
Syria or, indeed, on any other issues. But, right now, political, diplomatic,
economic and military facts on the ground point to an American comeback to the
Middle East as a major player. With victory over the so-called Islamic
Caliphate now almost complete the US would be ill-advised to throw away its
laurels and hand the trophy to rivals and adversaries in the region.
Putin and Erdogan may also be underestimating the ability of Arab states to
seek a leading role in shaping Syria's future. The prospect of a Turko-Russian
tandem to dominate the region, with Iran playing second violin, is unlikely to
leave most Arab states indifferent.
Machiavellians may suggest that it is not so bad to let Putin and Erdogan,
with the mullahs of Tehran hanging to their tailcoats, to remain bogged down
in a Syria reduced to the status of an ungoverned territory consisting of mile
after mile of rubble. With their economies in meltdown mode Russia, Turkey and
Iran are in no position to rebuild Syria into anything resembling a
functioning state.
That immense task requires genuine international participation which means an
active role by the United States, the European Union, the Arb state; China and
Japan among others.
Putin and Erdogan have not been able to forge a realistic policy on Syria.
Such policy could only be based on one inclusion and one exclusion.
The inclusion part would aim at acknowledging the interests and concerns of
all foreign powers as well as all domestic forces involved in the seven-year
old imbroglio that country.
Such inclusion need not take the model of the Berlin Conference on the
division of colonies among major European powers. But it would have to accept
cold realities on the ground at a time priority must be given to restoration
of a measure of stability.
The exclusion part would have to apply to the Assad regime which is already no
more than walking caricature of the "undead", and to the remnants of its evil
twin "ISIS".
Syria can be saved, but only if it is saved for all, starting with its
martyrized people. This week we heard nothing from Putin and Erdogan to show
that they understand that simple fact.
Amir Taheri was the executive editor-in-chief of the daily Kayhan in Iran
from 1972 to 1979. He has worked at or written for innumerable publications,
published eleven books, and has been a columnist for Asharq Al-Awsat since
1987
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