Pompeo and Victory Without Bullets: Efforts To Control Iran's Destabilizing Actions In Syria

02 May 2018

By Abdulrahman Al-Rashed

"We are experiencing tough times, we have to face the challenges courageously and strongly… we need powerful diplomatic efforts in the Middle East to control Iran's destabilizing actions in Syria, Yemen and the region". This was a part of new US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's speech to his staff, who amount to more than 70,000.

The US has a huge capability to weaken and possibly eliminate any regime it opposes, without shooting a single bullet, Pompeo said. That almost happened to the Iranian regime when Washington imposed further sanctions in 2006 after a Security Council resolution in response to the regime's insistence on pursuing its nuclear project.

Sanctions included banning the export of many goods, including refined oil products to Iran, preventing banking transactions, suspending financial transactions between Iran and most of the world's banks, and preventing international oil companies from producing oil in Iran. Washington granted no insurance for Iranian oil tankers and built an electronic wall that blocked all dealings including registering websites and internet services. Without dollars, information, banks and insurance, the Iranian regime was stuck; it could not trade, import nor fulfill the needs of its people.

The events required complicated diplomatic work, political patience, and knowledgeable intelligence agencies to make sure that the decisions were being implemented; this was what Washington succeeded in during this period. Due to these immense pressures, the Iranian regime resorted to communicating in private with, after three years, Obama's administration asking to negotiate.

These communications coincided with the Green Revolution in Tehran, which strongly impacted the regime. Then a long set of talks started between the two sides. Iran then had to be more submissive after the revolution in Syria, its strategic ally in the region. In exchange for Iran to suspend its nuclear project for military purposes, the US administration agreed along with its European allies to make a secret deal to lift economic sanctions on Iran while refraining from toppling the Syrian regime. The Iranians, who are skilled in bargaining, realized that President Obama was ready to give them more in return for the agreement. Thus they took double what they wished for, including large amounts of financial payments which suspended all the hostile campaigns against them and overlooked their military expansion in the region.

Even with Washington's serious mistakes, the diplomatic work it led for years had resulted in an important agreement that forced Khamenei's regime to yield without shooting a single bullet. This is the power of US diplomatic tools as described by Pompeo in his speech a few days ago. It seems it is doing the same thing with the North Korean regime. What's worrying is that the same mistakes made in dealing with Iran might be repeated with North Korea, given the similar circumstances. The current administration needs an urgent preliminary assessment of the situation before November, when the midterm elections will be taking place. The president's party should win one of the two chambers, or else he will lose a lot of his authority and become hostage to his rivals in the Democratic Party.

However, using diplomacy only to force the regime in Tehran to respect UN principles by suspending its activities and interventions in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza and Yemen would succeed but would not achieve quick results. The advantage of diplomacy is that there is no blood nor bullets, but it is very slow and its results may be too late for heated issues, such as wars.

The fear is that the North Korean regime would use Washington's pressing desire to have a historic nuclear agreement to exert more pressure. I do not rule out that the North Korean leader would try to rescue Khamenei, his ally, by convincing the Americans that retreating in any of their commitments to the Iranian deal would affect their credibility in their negotiations with him. My fears might not be real, but we know well the relationship between the two radical regimes.

Abdulrahman Al-Rashed is the former general manager of Al-Arabiya television. He is also the former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat, and the leading Arabic weekly magazine Al-Majalla. He is also a senior columnist in the daily newspapers Al-Madina and Al-Bilad.
 

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