What Has Kim Done to Khamenei? Iran's Supreme Leader Undergoing A Difficult Test
07 May 2018By
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed
Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his leadership are undergoing a
difficult test. Aside from the US government's threat to restore economic
sanctions on the Iranian regime, the collapse of its main nuclear ally, North
Korea, must be a catastrophic loss.
It is true that I have not heard, so far, a serious commentator talking
optimistically about the historic meeting and reconciliation between the
leaders of the two Koreas, nor anyone who believes that this event will bring
an end to the war and tension, as announced by the two leaders.
While uncertainty remains, the developments on the Korean Peninsula remain of
interest to the Iranian regime. What if North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong
Un truly decided to end the state of war, even though we do not understand to
this day why he has changed his policy, if he has really done so?
Let's assume that what we have heard from him reflects a new policy and that
North Korea has decided to become a peaceful country without nuclear weapons
and to reconcile with its sister South Korea. What would happen to Iran? What
would happen would be a huge political coup and a great international affair,
and its effects would reach distant areas, including our region.
There are two countries in the world that have kept the international
community busy and been a threat to peace: North Korea and Iran. With
Pyongyang's withdrawal, Tehran would be alone, and it would be easy to put
pressure on it, forcing it to stop its nuclear project and adjust its bad
regional behavior. The news alone would weaken Iran and strengthen the United
States and its allies.
But the problem facing everyone is the intentions of the North Korean leader,
which many doubt. In politics, trust and credibility are rare commodities —
they are as sought after as precious stones. And since North Korea lied and
did not keep to its previous commitments, made in return for lifting the
Western economic embargo on it, we may fear a repetition of this play with a
more dramatic performance.
Three factors make Kim a liar in the eyes of his opponents. First, he promised
last time to stop his nuclear project in exchange for ending the economic
blockade, but he failed to do so. Second, since he has succeeded in developing
his military capabilities to such a large extent, it is difficult to imagine
that he has decided to abandon them. Finally, because he depends on superior
technological and military capabilities to maintain his rule, it is hard to
believe that he would endanger his position by abandoning these factors.
Many believe that China is behind the change. US President Donald Trump
acknowledged that the recent major breakthrough would not have happened
without the support of the Chinese leadership. Beijing can give Trump the
guarantees he needs, but he knows China is not a reliable guarantor.
Therefore, in the absence of information about the justifications of the North
Korean bloodless coup, we are still puzzled and skeptical.
We hope that the dream will become reality and that the world will get rid of
another danger — the North Korean nuclear power. And perhaps the Iranian
leadership will be wise and learn from Kim, get rid of its nuclear weapons,
abandon its military adventures and become a major civil economic power in the
region, competing with us in education, construction, industry and
entertainment.
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed is the former general manager of Al-Arabiya
television. He is also the former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat, and the
leading Arabic weekly magazine Al-Majalla. He is also a senior columnist in
the daily newspapers Al-Madina and Al-Bilad.
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EsinIslam.Com
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