Who Truly Needs The Iran Nuclear Deal? Obama's Iranian Miscalculation
03 May 2018By
Mahdi Okad And Tyler Q. Houlton
As all eyes await U.S. President Donald Trump's decision on the fate of the
Iran nuclear deal today, it is quite interesting how Iranian regime officials
and media outlets are raising quite a fuss and brouhaha in this regard.
From Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to other figures there are claims of
Tehran preparing counter-measures if Trump decides to withdraw the U.S. from
the accord, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
It is worth noting how Rouhani celebrated the JCPOA's signing back in 2015 and
rushed to the West to sign multi-billion dollar deals with Airbus, France's
Total, Boeing, and others. The JCPOA rendered major sanctions reliefs and
Tehran to restart its flow of oil abroad.
If the U.S. decides to exit the JCPOA and launches the return of crippling
sanctions, signs already indicate Iran's nosediving economy - suffering from
embezzlement and state-backed mismanagement - has no ability to stand in the
face of a highly likely cascade of consequences.
Iran's regime is in desperate need of oil money to provide for its proxies
fighting in Yemen, the Lebanese Hezbollah, the Hashid al-Shaabi in Iraq and a
spectral of Shiite militias in Syria propping the Assad regime in power. This
ultimately safeguards Tehran's Middle East interests. A return of sanctions
endangers such desperately needed funds.
Washington has already ensured the shortage of Iranian oil in the world market
can be easily replaced from sources in North America and its Middle East
allies.
Economic analysts believe in addition to Iran's oil export crisis, the value
of the country's currency, the rial, will plunge further to 100,000 rials
against the U.S. dollar. It currently floats between 60,000 to 70,000 rials.
Various stores no longer accept Iranian currency, various reports indicate.
Iran's economy is valued at around $450 billion while the U.S. stands at a
whopping $44 trillion. It's not rocket science to understand why no party
won't hesitate on choosing to deal with the U.S., bringing about increasing
isolation for the Iranian regime.
Despite claims raised by various apparatuses inside Iran and entities linked
to Iranian regime supreme leader Ali Khamenei, all statements resemble nothing
but a propaganda machine at work aiming to save face as circumstances become
very turbulent for Tehran.
All the while Iran's lobbyists are going the distance to prevent Trump from
nixing the JCPOA, and literally begging the Europeans - France, Germany and
the United Kingdom - to convince the U.S. out of such a decision.
Aside from the outcome of Trump's decision, certain is the fact that this U.S.
President has a significantly harsh view of the regime ruling Iran.
The Trump era is in far contrast to the Obama years, previously described by
Iranian regime media as the "golden years."
Unprecedented domestic and international challenges, isolation and deep crises
are what awaits Iran's regime.
Obama's Iranian Miscalculation
By Tyler Q. Houlton
The Hill, February 01, 2016 - President Obama's misguided nuclear deal with
the Islamic Republic of Iran has prompted outrage on Capitol Hill and
emboldened the rogue regime. If anything, Iran's behavior has become more
bellicose in recent months. Some of the most high profile incidents of Iran's
saber rattling since the mullahs inked the controversial pact with the Obama
administration in July of last year include Tehran's decision to conduct at
least two ballistic missile tests and the detention of ten American sailors at
gun point. Obama's latest decision to swap seven Iranians convicted of
violating U.S. embargoes and international sanctions for five American
prisoners, while simultaneously lifting sanctions, paying at $1.7 billion
ransom to the theocratic government, and releasing roughly $100 billion to
Iran (equal to over ten percent of the entire Iranian economy), is certain to
encourage even more belligerent Iranian behavior, further inflaming regional
tensions. Obama's decision to impose a largely inconsequential and symbolic
round of sanctions on a dozen individuals and entities involved in Iran's
missile program in the wake of recent events is simply a distraction from the
real Iranian threat.
America has had a difficult time containing Iran since 1979, when the Iranian
revolution began and Islamic militants loyal to Khomeini took over 60 American
hostages for 444 days. U.S.-Iranian relations have been tense ever since.
In order to successfully prevent a nuclear Iran, this administration, and the
next one, must reinstate tough economic sanctions targeted at the upper brass
of the Iranian government, institute a moratorium on Iranian student visas.
Department of Homeland Security (DHS) recently reported that at least a half a
million foreign citizens overstayed their visas, including hundreds of
Iranians. Appallingly, DHS also created a visa waiver loophole, with Obama's
permission, solely for Iran. To combat an enemy, it's absurd to educate them
and give them insight into our culture and institutions only to send them back
to work for an anti-American government.
We should also make it a stated goal of the United States to pursue a strategy
of regime change in Iran. As the world's leading state sponsor of terrorism,
failure to change the Iranian regime - coupled with an influx of billions of
dollars and the ability to access the global financial system due to the
actions of Obama - will increase Iran's ability to fund more terrorism in the
region and elsewhere, potentially even within the United States. Even
Secretary of State John Kerry admitted money from U.S. sanctions relief will
end up in the hands of terrorist organizations.
Prevention of a nuclear Iran by any means necessary should be the number one
priority of any administration. Our experience with North Korea should serve
as an example, though not identical, of the pitfalls of inaction. Decades of
perpetual negotiation and empty statements expressing "grave concern" did not
prevent Pyongyang from acquiring a nuclear weapon. As a result, the U.S. and
its allies are attempting to contain an unstable dictator with a nuclear
capability.
Iran's aggressive behavior and blatant disregard for the multinational nuclear
deal has been met with substantial criticism from Obama's political
adversaries, as well as his pacifist and isolationist allies. In an unusual
move for a loyal Democratic Party in Congress, Obama's unpopular decision to
lift sanctions was met with significant opposition. Obama should take that
criticism to heart, re-impose sanctions and consider expanding them to include
those nations who bankroll Iran's terrorist activities by doing business with
the regime.
What is perhaps most shocking is the president's almost religious dedication
to this agreement, particularly given the serious challenges associated with
independently verifying compliance and the failures we've already seen in
enforcing its terms. Few, beyond members of the president's own
administration, believe that this flaccid agreement will prevent Iran from
obtaining a nuclear weapon. A nuclear Iran would destabilize the region and
set off a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.
An overall strategy of regime change should be put in place that contains a
basket of tools, including sanctions, diplomatic pressure, restrictions on
visas, support for dissident groups, covert operations and a strong military
presence in the region.
America can no longer afford to coddle Iran's hardliners, allow the rogue
nation to further its nuclear ambitions, educate its technocrats, and pour
billions of dollars into its bank account. With the rise of the Islamic State
and other terrorist groups with ties to Muslim extremism, it is only a matter
of time before nuclear weapons fall into the hands of a terrorist
organization. A nuclear Iran poses a significant threat to regional stability
and to American national security.
Throughout his seven years in office, this president has given away too much
to Iran for nothing in return. Unfortunately, it will be up to the next
administration to fix Obama's miscalculations and mistakes.
Houlton is chief of Staff to Rep. Glenn Grothman (R-Wis.) and the author of
"Presidential Politics and the Ayatollah
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EsinIslam.Com
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