Tehran and the Japanese Visitor
16 June 2019By Ghassan Charbel
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's visit to Tehran is expected to be a
milestone in efforts to reduce tension in the Iran-US crisis. The visit is
unique for many reasons. It is the first time a Japanese prime minister has
visited Iran since the 1979 revolution. The visit is made with clear American
encouragement and an explicit Iranian acceptance, confirmed by the scheduling
of a meeting between Abe and Spiritual Leader Ali Khamenei, who has the final
say in major Iranian decisions.
Positions launched during the phase of exploring the possibilities of
negotiation are part of the negotiation itself. It is not surprising that they
are marked by contradictory indications.
The negotiation game is difficult, complex and involves misinformation.
Concealing weaknesses with harsh rhetoric and a loud voice is a traditional
reminder of the available papers.
Iran has had a long experience in this matter. For the last four decades, it
has been a party to thorny and complex relations, especially with Western
countries, mainly the United States.
In the diplomatic circles, officials whispered that Iran had to show some
flexibility if it really wanted to shorten the crisis and get out of the
"painful sanctions" that had a clear impact on its economy and the lives of
its citizens. Diplomats say Tehran may be willing to show some flexibility on
specific issues such as the weapons of mass destruction, that is, the scope of
ballistic missiles.
Those tend to say that Iran, which has always shown an interest in maintaining
relations with countries such as Japan, which enjoys economic and
technological weight, may avoid taking decisive and final stances that would
lead to the visit's failure and strengthen the position of hardliners in the
US administration.
Tokyo, on the other hand, is very interested in digging something like a hole
in the wall of the current crisis. This position can be understood in light of
the importance it attaches to maintaining stability in the Middle East, which
accounts for 90 percent of its energy imports.
Stability in the Middle East is a persistent item in Tokyo's dealings with the
region. The same also applies to China, which is also concerned with this
stability that is vital for its economy.
It can be said that Abe, despite the very complex nature of the crisis, finds
something to build on. After its military actions in the region, Washington
has made sure that it was neither seeking war - favoring the option of
negotiation if Tehran showed the needed seriousness - nor does it want to
change the regime, but rather modify Iran's behavior.
Tehran, for its part, said it was not seeking war and was certainly aware of
the cost of a direct confrontation with the US military machine. Observers
believe that the option of small harassment or strikes by proxy is not
available to Iran in the current crisis, especially after receiving strict
warnings from the American side. The option of creating an alternative war in
the region is also difficult because it will confirm the US accusations of
Iran moving its arms in the region.
Four days before Abe's arrival, Iran's Supreme National Security Council (SNSC)
identified what it considered to be the conditions for the success of the
visitor's mission. "The return of the United States to the nuclear agreement,
the compensation of Iran's losses, and the lifting of international sanctions
imposed by Washington can guarantee the success," Council spokesman Keivan
Khosravi said.
At the same time, Khosravi was keen to praise relations between Tehran and
Tokyo. "Japan's approach in foreign policy basically supports the legal and
political standards of the international community and has not been affected
by the progress and delay of extremism," he said.
If the last part of the speech confirms Iran's interest in the Japanese
channel, talk about the conditions for the success of the visit falls under
high ceilings. If Washington were ready to return to the nuclear agreement,
there would have been no crisis in the first place.
Statements by the SNSC spokesman came in parallel with a speech by Iran's Oil
Minister, Bijan Zangeneh, in which he acknowledged that the United States was
"mature" in putting smart sanctions on his country.
He said US sanctions were "different and more effective" than previous ones,
stressing that his ministry was "struggling" to circumvent them under the
current circumstances. He also admitted that the severity of the sanctions was
not limited to oil, but also affected the maritime transport and the banking
sector.
On the eve of German Foreign Minister Haikou Mas' visit to Tehran on Monday,
Foreign Minister Mohamed Javad Zarif stepped up his tone against the Europeans
and called on them to normalize their trade relations with his country,
hinting at consequences if they did not.
For his part, Speaker Ali Larijani commented on remarks by President Emmanuel
Macron during the latter's meeting with his US counterpart, describing them as
"shameful." Macron spoke of the need to reach "full long-term conviction on
the need to limit the ballistic activity and to contain Iran regionally."
Perhaps Macron's last words during his meeting with Trump constitute the
problem and the key. By stepping out of the nuclear deal and imposing
unprecedented sanctions on Iran, Trump brought back the issue that Tehran had
successfully kept out of negotiations with the Obama administration – that is
its regional role and ballistic missiles.
There are those who say that Zarif had hinted to his American counterpart
during the negotiations that ended with the signing of the nuclear agreement
that the issue of missiles and the regional role can be discussed later. But
the spiritual leader quickly closed the door after signing the deal.
Amid deep doubts between the two sides and the contradiction of messages and
signals, Abe will arrive in Tehran in the hope of cooling the crisis and
opening a niche in the wall. The options are not easy for Iran. Waiting for
the end of the Trump era is not a guaranteed option, especially given the
harsh sanctions and the prospect of a second presidential term.
Ghassan Charbel is the editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper
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