Posted By Emile Tayyip 

Last week, a rocket fired by Palestinian fighters from the Gaza Strip struck an army base at Zikkim in southern Israel, wounding about 70 soldiers and raising fears of a large-scale Israeli military operation in the coastal strip. 

Even before the Zikkim attack, there were calls in Israel for launching a major offensive in Gaza to crush Palestinian fighters and stop their rocket attacks. Earlier this month, Defence Minister Ehud Barak noted that Israel was "getting closer to the need to carry out a large-scale ground operation" in the Gaza Strip. 

According to an article on the BBC, some analysts believe that the only obstacle that prevented Israel from raiding Gaza was the continuing tension on the northern front between Israel and Syria after Israeli warplanes violated Syrian airspace nearly two weeks ago. 

Despite the fact that Israeli casualties from Palestinian rocket attacks are usually light, the Zikkim operation was an exception, providing the Israeli government with an excuse to attack Gaza. 

But Israel’s options are now limited. A defensive system that could track and shoot Palestinian rockets in the air is a major technical challenge given the very short time that the missiles are in the air. Because there is no technical solution to the rocket attacks, Israel’s remaining options are diplomatic or military. 

One possibility might be to examine Hamas’ apparent interest in reaching a ceasefire agreement. But again this is not possible because the Israelis do not want to deal with Hamas, which seized control of Gaza in June after ousting Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah faction. 

So many analysts now say that Hamas-run Gaza should prepare itself for a major incursion by Israeli occupation forces after the Jewish state labelled the territory an “enemy entity” on Wednesday, a move that Hamas described as a declaration of war. "We will not surrender and we will fight together with all our people," Hamas spokesman Fawzi Barhoum said.

Israel, which retains tight control of Gaza's air, land and sea borders even though it withdrew its troops and settlers from the strip two years ago, also said that it would reduce the supply of fuel and electricity to the strip and would continue military operations and “targeted killings” of senior Hamas leaders in the territory. 

But these targeted assassinations are risky for Israel. Much of Hamas political leaders have been democratically-elected by the Palestinians even though they have been disowned by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Such a step would inevitably draw strong criticism from abroad, further damaging Israel's diplomatic standing. 

Moreover, tightening the screw on Hamas-run Gaza could only be seen by the Palestinians as a form of collective punishment. It won’t even benefit Israel as it would consolidate support for Hamas among a population that’s already struggling to maintain a basic economic standard of living. 

It’s hard to see how the total collapse of Palestinian society in Gaza can benefit Israel! 

Military options for Israel are also unattractive. A major, long incursion would claim the lives of several Palestinian civilians and there would be some Israeli casualties. 

According to Reuters, Gaza resistance fighters have already taken up positions along the border fence with Israel and in Gaza city whilst ordinary people shovel sand into bags to use as barriers to block Israeli occupation forces. 

"The preparations by the fighters gave us the feeling the Israelis are about to invade any minute," said taxi driver Khaled Ali. "God forbid, if Israel invaded there would be a massacre." 

According to the BBC article, the split between Hamas in Gaza and Fatah in the occupied West Bank introduces a new dangerous level of complexity into the Israelis’ calculations. 

Some Palestinians say that a confrontation with Israel would alleviate factional tensions between Hamas and Fatah by uniting them to fight their common enemy. Abu Thaer, a spokesman for Fatah's Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, said all groups should unite against Israel because the "enemy's fire does not differentiate between Hamas and Fatah." 

However, Gaza political analyst Hani Habib told Reuters he doubted an Israeli military attack would end Hamas-Fatah tensions as there is no immediate sign of an end to the factional hostilities. "Theoretically an Israeli assault should unite factions, but practically we have seen this is not the case with Palestinian groups," he said, noting factional violence continued last May amid tensions with Israel. 

Analysts say stepping up pressure on Gaza would bolster support for Hamas, which gained its popularity for its strong opposition to Israeli occupation of Gaza and the larger West Bank. Boosting Hamas would foil the plans of Israeli policy-makers, who, along with their American allies, want to boost Abbas’ standing and weaken Hamas. "For that reason I do not think Israel would rush into large scale raid into Gaza," Habib said. "Hamas is in crisis and Israel will not rush to rescue it.” 

Meanwhile, ordinary Gazans, who are already struggling with political infighting and an economic meltdown caused by border blockades, are braced for the worst. "There is no escape from the hell of Gaza," said Abu Ali, owner of a clothes store. "Israel is the cause of all our miseries but Abbas and Hamas are responsible too." 

©  EsinIslam.Com

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