Despite strong U.S. opposition, Turkey keeps threatening to attack the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which is based in the mountains of northern Iraq.
The PKK has been fighting for Kurdish self-rule in south-eastern Turkey since 1984. It has strong support, with many Kurds in Iraq, Iran, Syria and Turkey dreaming of an independent state.
The last incursions made by Turkey into Iraq were in the early 1990s. Fears of another Turkish attack rose after a bomb blast killed six people in Ankara on May 22. Senior Turkish officials blamed the PKK for Tuesday’s deadly blast and warned that any operation against Kurdish rebels would require troops to cross into the Kurdish region of northern Iraq.
But the PKK denies involvement in the Ankara attack, and the United States warns against any military strike.
However, the outrage in Turkey toward the PKK has been growing, with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan saying that the parliament, dominated by his AK party, would approve a military strike if the army sought it. "It is out of the question for us to disagree on this issue with our... soldiers," he told ATV Turkish television network this week. The Prime Minister also indicated he would not seek an approval from Washington, which has long opposed Turkish intervention in Iraq. "Turkey doesn't require permission from any country. Other nations should in fact support us in this endeavour.”
Erdogan’s warning came days after Turkey’s army’s chief, Gen. Yasar Buyukanit, said that his forces -- 150,000 of whom are deployed near or on the Turkish-Iraq border -- are ready to strike Kurdish camps in northern Iraq. Retired Turkish Gen. Edip Baser also told CNN he believes an attack could be just weeks away.
Turkey’s threats of military action comes two months before a general election in which Erdogan's Islamist-rooted Justice and Development (AK) party faces a challenge from secularist factions. AK’s plans to vote one of its members to the Turkish presidency sparked mass protests by pro-secularism supporters last month. The Turkish military has also threatened to defend secularism. Although the majority of Turks are Muslims, there has been a strict separation of religion and state since the Turkish republic came into being in 1923.
Some analysts say that in the run-up of the July election, Erdogan’s AK party will launch war against Kurdish separatists to rally public opinion and downplay its differences with the army. Mustafa Aydin, professor of international relations at Ankara University and the National Security Academy, said the government would "try to use this to rally Turkish people around the government, around the people. They will most likely try to use nationalistic themes and terms during the propaganda."
Meanwhile, analysts say Turkey’s tactics against the PKK represents a "testing ground of Turkish-American relations". Many Turks are disappointed with the lack of U.S. support for its long-time ally on the issue of attacking the PKK. Most Turks also resent Washington’s support for Kurdish autonomy in northern Iraq. "Going into north Iraq would bring Turkey into a head-on disagreement with the U.S.," says Mehmet Altan, a newspaper columnist and political analyst. "That could jeopardize Turkey's stability and position in the region."
Washington is caught between conflicting interests of regional allies. In a bid to avoid a conflict in Iraq's only consistently stable region, the U.S. has tried to contain Turkish frustration by backing a diplomatic force involving Ankara, Washington and Baghdad.
Earlier this week, the U.S. State Department spokesman Tom Casey said that the Turkish authorities have no evidence to prove that the PKK was behind Tuesday’s blast. Although Casey acknowledged that the PKK represents a threat to Turkey, he said the "best way to deal" with Kurdish separatists is through "continued cooperation.”
"And we certainly don't think unilateral military action from Turkey or anyplace else would solve anything," he stressed.
Instead of resorting to military force, Turkey should focus on better integrating its Kurdish minority into society, analysts say. "The military are putting the pressure on the government" says Altan. "But the Kurdish problem is one that needs to be solved by democratic means, not military ones."
As part of its European Union membership bid, Turkey passed a number of reforms aimed at improving human and cultural rights for its Kurdish population, estimated at 20 million of Turkey's total 71 million. But this process has been stalled amid renewed threats by the army to attack the PKK and a backlash by some European leaders opposed to Turkey joining the EU under any circumstances.
The Turkish government has recently refused to review a law requiring all parties to gain at least 10% of the national vote to win seats in parliament. This means that Kurdish parties will probably be shut out of parliament again in the July elections. Although they have the backing of many Kurds across south-eastern Turkey, Kurdish parties are not likely to get 10% nationwide.
"As long as real democratization is not achieved, military operations will fail to reach their goal," says Ragip Duran, a prominent author and analyst of Kurdish issues. "More blood will be spilled. The Kurdish problem is not based in north Iraq, it's based in Turkey, and that is what needs to be addressed."
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